This branch is for the moment before the first line of code: an idea, a project, maybe a prototype. The question underneath all fifteen: if you spend real money building version 1, what are the odds it lands?
1. Problem clarity
Can you say, in one sentence, who this product is for and what it replaces for them? Have you talked to at least five people who have the problem today, not friends being encouraging? And do you know what those people currently do to cope?
That last one is the question I care about most. Your real competitor is rarely another app. It's the workaround: the spreadsheet, the WhatsApp group, the intern who does it by hand. If you don't know the workaround intimately, you don't know what you're replacing, and "better than nothing" is a much weaker pitch than "better than what you do today".
2. Validation & demand
Has anyone committed something real to this idea: money, a pre-order, a signed letter of intent, hours of their own time? Could you name your first ten users as actual people or companies, not segments? Have you tested the riskiest assumption without writing code: a landing page, a concierge version, a pilot run by hand?
Compliments are not validation; commitments are. And the cheapest iteration is the one you never had to build: a week of manual piloting routinely teaches more than three months of development, at roughly one percent of the cost.
3. Scope & sequencing
Do you know what version 1 deliberately does not do, ideally as a written "not now" list? Could a usable v1 realistically ship in under three months? And do you know which part of the product is the genuinely hard part, versus which parts are commodity?
Most budgets die rebuilding commodity features (logins, dashboards, settings pages) instead of nailing the one thing that's actually hard and actually differentiating. A version 1 earns the right to exist by what it leaves out.
4. Resources & runway
Do you have a budget for building version 1 and for the six months after launch? Do you have weekly time reserved to make product decisions during the build? If v1 teaches you the idea needs to change, and it usually does, can you afford a second iteration?
Launch day is the midpoint of the spend, not the end. The projects that die quietly are the ones that spent everything getting to launch and had nothing left to act on what launch taught them.
5. Ownership & partner fit
Do you know who runs this product day to day after launch? Will you own the accounts, code, and data from day one: domain, hosting, repository, third-party services, all in your name? And do you know what you actually need from a technical partner: pure execution, or product thinking and pushback too?
I build for your autonomy, not your dependency, and that starts at account creation, not at handover. A partner who sets up your infrastructure under their own accounts is building you a rental, whatever the contract says.
Scores at 40 or below on this branch get told, in plain terms, not to build yet, and get pointed at the validation work to do first. That's not a sales tactic in reverse; it's the same advice I'd give across a table.